视频：美经济学家称通用破产比不破产要好

　　新浪财经亲历华尔街报道组对话了NYU纽约大学商学院著名的金融教授Altman。

　　他当天共有三场采访。新浪财经亲历华尔街报道组之前是bloomberg(彭博通讯社)和CNN(美国有线电视新闻网)。Altman被人们称为Z-Man。因为他创建的并以他名字命名的Altman模型非常出名。这个模型主要是用来分析企业破产的。在与新浪财经亲历华尔街报道组的交流过程中，他表示通用汽车应该破产，尽管大家都不愿意看到，尽管会有很多人失业，尽管这对于整个美国汽车行业来说是重创。在采访中，他详细介绍了用他的Z-Score分析通用汽车得出的结论，并且对通用为什么应该破产做了详尽的分析。还从他的角度谈了对此次金融危机和经济危机的看法。

　　以下为对话实录：

　　Q: So could you first tell us, like, what do you think about GM, should it go bankruptcy?

　　问：请先谈谈通用汽车的问题，这家公司应该申请破产吗？

　　A: Actually it’s a very important question, extremely important, particularly today. As you know, the Congress and many auto executives and union people think that the company should be bailed out with government funds. I think that would be a mistake, in a traditional way of making, for example, low interest loans for them or buying some of their shares, because the outlook for the economy is very bad and perhaps a two to three year recession and in this period consumers are probably not gonna be buying many new cars, not only for GM, but for all car makers. But particularly for GM and Ford and Chrysler, they’ve lost market share quite a bit.

　　答：其实这是一个非常重要的问题，在目前尤为重要。我们知道，美国国会、很多汽车企业的高管还有工会，都认为通用公司应该得到政府资金的救援。但我认为这种对企业进行低息贷款或购买企业股份的传统做法在当前情况下是错误的，因为当前的经济形势非常糟糕，可能会出现一个持续两到三年的经济衰退期。在这期间，消费者对汽车的购买力会下降，不止是通用公司，所有汽车制造商都面临这个困境，但通用、福特、克莱斯勒等大汽车厂商的市场份额流失得更为严重。

　　So what I recommend is indeed the company be forced into bankruptcy, and take advantage of some very attractive aspects of the bankruptcy code. For example, under bankruptcy, the company is eligible for something called debtor-in-possession financing, you maybe have heard of that. This is fairly unique to the United States, although I think it’s also available in Japan. And what happens there is that whoever lends money to the company after they go bankruptcy, bankrupt, they have a super priority status over all other creditors, so the chance of getting repaid is extremely good, relatively to all the creditors. In fact, you can count on less than five fingers, the number of times somebody who’s borrowed money from debtor-in-possession has actually not paid it back and they will do all losses.

　　因此我建议，干脆让通用汽车破产，并利用破产法中一些对破产企业非常有利的条款。比如，破产企业可以进行“债务人持有资产”式的破产融资，你可能对此也有所了解。这基本上是美国特有的政策，据我所知日本也在实行。这种情况下，任何在企业破产后向其贷款的人都会拥有高于其它债权人的优先地位，进而会得到与其它所有债权人相比极高的贷款偿还率。实际上，破产者借贷不还、让债权人承担损失的例子实在屈指可数。

　　And in almost all cases, they get paid back, especially because there usually is some collateral and the interest rate right now is very high so that the government could actually earn money from this. This would give the company a fairly large amount of money to sustain themselves over the next 2 to 3 years, which is gonna be a very difficult period in general economy and particularly for durable goods sales like automobiles. I think that would be a very good way to do it. Now the government should guarantee those funds. So it’s a government guarantee of the debtor-in-possession financing probably working through some of the big banks, because they are more experienced with the actual mechanism and how to structure it. But the government would be there to guarantee the funds, so that not that they guarantee the payment of the funds but guarantee that they would receive the funds and provide guarantees to the banks who would be structuring that.

　　几乎所有情况下，贷款均会被偿还，特别是这背后通常会有抵押品，而且目前的利率非常高，政府其实是可以从中获得收益的。这样，企业就会得到数目可观的资金用来在未来两到三年内持续经营，而这段时间正是经济整体上最艰难的时期，尤其对于汽车这类耐用品来说。因此我觉得这是一个很好的解决方案。接下来就需要政府对这些资金进行担保。政府对破产贷款融资进行的担保多半会与大银行合作，因为这些银行对相关机制更有经验，并且知道如何组织融资。但政府对资金的担保还是必不可少的，并不是要政府担保资金的偿付，而是保证债务人会得到资金，并对组织融资的银行提供担保。

　　I think that’s a far better way than declaring, than not declaring bankruptcy and throwing good money after bad. Of course, one last thing, there will be potentially some very negative reaction on the part of consumer confidence, on the part of unions, on the part of suppliers, on the part of dealers. So it’s gotta be made absolutely clear that the government is going to be supporting the company, even though it’s in bankruptcy. ‘Cause frankly, the company has to make major reconstructuring changes and I’m doubtful that they would be made unless they are going into bankruptcy.

　　我认为这要比不宣布破产并白白浪费资金好得多。当然，最后应该指出，在消费者信心方面、工会方面、供应商方面、经销商方面，会有一些潜在的非常负面的影响。因此要十分明确地说明，即便通用汽车破产了，政府也会全力支持它。说实话，通用汽车需要进行大规模重组，而我十分怀疑在不破产的情况下它能够进行变革。

　　Q: So what kind of bad effect that do you think that this is going to cause, like a lot of people are going to lose jobs?

　　问：您认为这种方案的弊端是什么？比如大量工人会失业？

　　A: That’s gonna happen anyway. And in fact, Chrysler announced that if they had gone ahead with the merger with General Motors, which was being considered only two weeks ago, that they would be immediately laying off 50 percent of the workers. And already there have been massive lay-offs and this will continue. It’s true that in bankruptcy these lay-offs might come more quickly than they would have come, if they had been given the government bailout. But it’s only a matter of time that they would take place anyway.

　　答：失业是不可避免的。事实上，克莱斯勒宣称，如果他们在两周前与通用谈成了合并交易，就会立刻裁掉50%的工人。目前已经出现大规模裁员的情况，而且这种趋势还会持续。如果通用宣布破产，大量裁员的情形会比在政府出资援助的情况下更快出现。但不管是哪种情况，企业裁员都只是个时间问题。

　　Still I feel very strongly for the workers and feel that, yes, there will be some hardships in the short run and so they’ll lose their jobs more quickly, but it’s time to retool, to train these people to do other things. Perhaps, the government put money into infrastructure, maybe like the Chinese government is now doing in China, to try to stimulate the economy and hire a lot of these automobile workers. Now they wouldn’t get as much money probably because they have very sweet deals with the company at very high wages per hour. And probably they will have to take jobs at a lower price, and a lower wage than they would have before.

　　我非常同情这些工人，我知道短期内会出现一些困难，他们会更快失业，但现在已经到了调整的时候了，应该通过培训使他们获得其它技能。也许，政府应该把资金投入到基础设施建设当中——就像中国政府现在刺激经济的举措——以此雇佣大量汽车厂工人。当然他们的收入不会像原来那么高，因为通用汽车支付给工人的时薪非常优厚。相较以前，他们可能会以较低的薪资被雇佣。

　　Q: So (if) it would actually go bankrupt, what kind of effect do you think this is going to cause to the whole industry?

　　问：假如通用公司真的宣布破产，您认为对整个行业会造成什么影响？

　　A: Yes, there will be some knock-on effects in the industry. But again these things are happening anyway. I don’t think they are gonna be any more sizable. They may be more dramatic in terms of happening more quickly, in terms of dealerships needing to be closed, less subsidies for the dealers; some of the suppliers may have to go bankrupt themselves. Basically it’s right sizing the company more quickly than would be the case, if at all, if they just receive the low-interest loans from the government and continue as business is usual, because frankly the old management has shown that they haven’t run the company very well, they haven’t built cars that people want to buy and it’s not likely that they can do the turn-around themselves. I think there is gonna be major changes in the company, which will happen in bankruptcy more quickly.

　　答：整个行业会出现一些连锁反应。但还是那句话，这些情况无法避免。我不认为(在我的设想下)这些连锁反应会波及更广，它们只会更显得戏剧化一些，比如发生得更快，经销商倒闭，经销商得到的补助更少，还有一些配件供应商自己也可能破产。但基本上，相比企业最终接受政府的低息贷款且维持经营现状，这样做可以更迅速地对企业进行优化。因为，坦率讲，现有管理团队的表现证明他们的经营不成功，他们也没能造出人们想买的汽车，因此他们不太可能自己扭转局面。我认为如果通用破产，企业会迅速取得重大变革。

　　Q: So real estate went into trouble and now the auto industry. So using your Z Score, what do you think is going to be next?

　　问：先是房地产业陷入困局，现在又轮到了汽车行业。请问通过您的Z得分，是否能判断出下一个被波及的行业是什么？

　　A: Well, first of all, Z score, by the way, on General Motors now is the lowest it has ever been, a -0.17, which is consistent with bankrupt companies and so gives me more, say, confidence that the solution is in bankruptcy and it deserved to go, “deserved” to go bankrupt, nobody deserves to go, in a sense that they did something wrong, but their operations are just inefficient in Z scores.

　　答：首先提一下，通用公司目前的Z得分是历史新低的-0.17，与一般破产企业的得分基本相同。这让我对自己的设想更有信心，就是说破产可以提供解决方案。通用公司也“该”宣布破产，没有谁“该”破产，这么说好像他们犯了错，但Z得分说明通用的运营效率低下。

　　Other industries are in lots of trouble, whether you use my Z score, or you use some other indicators, for example, the building industry, certainly related to real estate, also the gaming industry, a lot of hotels in Las Vegas and in Atlantic City, people simply are saving their money, not going to enjoy the entertainment or the gambling (Yeah, they don’t have the mood to do that). They don’t have the mood to do it, exactly. Retailing, certainly is going to suffer, except for the really big discounters, like Walmart, and Target, and some of the best buy of discount, wholesale and electronic.

　　无论是通过我的Z得分还是其它指标来判断，其它行业也形势严峻，比如，跟房地产业紧密相关的建筑业，还有博彩业，包括拉斯维加斯和大西洋城的很多酒店。人们开始存钱，不再进行娱乐或赌博。(是啊，大家也没心情)。的确，人们没心情去做这些事。还有一个肯定会受到冲击的是零售业，除了那些大型折扣连锁店，比如沃尔玛超市和塔吉特百货，以及一些批发商和电器折扣店。

　　But most of the retailers, especially the high end are gonna suffer a lot or have already suffered. Probably anything to do with consumer durables is going to suffer, like electronics, like autos and trucks and things like that. And what else? Let’s say, financial companies, already have suffered. Those are the main industries. My Z scores are not really appropriate for financial firms though. Real estate developers are in trouble. And probably things like steel that are used in the automobile manufacturing, while they produce less cars, they are gonna need less steel. That’s gonna impact the steel manufacturers as well. And really it’s cross- the-board, I think it’s going to be a very difficult situation. We’ll come out of it. And the reasons, well maybe you are going to ask something……

　　但大多数零售商，尤其是高档商品零售商会遭受重创，甚至已经遭受重创。可能任何与耐用消费品相关的行业都将受到影响，比如电器业，汽车、卡车，诸如此类。让我想想还有哪些？嗯，金融企业，它们已经遭受重创。这些是被此次金融危机伤害最大的行业。我的Z得分在对金融企业的判断上不是很适用。地产开发商也陷入困境。可能还有钢铁行业，当汽车减产，所需的钢铁量就相应减少，这样整个钢铁制造业就会受到牵连。影响其实是全面的，因此我认为形势很严峻。但我们会摆脱困境……

　　(How we come out if?)

　　Well the way you come out it is you deleverage the system and the banks then, when they are done with their deleveraging start lending again and people, you know, it’s kind of like a multiplier effect, on the down side and then on the up side. Physical stimulus is something that they are going to do very soon. It’s one of the first things that President-elect Obama will do is try to put money into the system, probably through infrastructure, building bridges, building tunnels, improving roadways, and so put more money in people’s pockets. They have to spend it first on, you know, clothing and, food, but eventually they will start buying again whe n prices come down, like real estate, they will start buying real estate again. A lot of people I know are waiting now to buy real estate, waiting for the bottom, which unfortunately I don’t think has been hit yet.

　　(如何摆脱困境？)

　　摆脱困境的办法是对整个系统“去杠杆化”。等银行完成了去杠杆化过程，便会重新开始放贷，人们(也开始贷款)。这类似于乘数效应，先在底端显现，然后是顶端。还有一个亟待实施的是实体刺激方案。美国新当选总统奥巴马首先要做的就是把资金注入系统，可能通过基础设施建设，如造桥、建隧道、整修道路，把钱重新装入人们的囊中。当然，人们会先把钱用在生活必需品——如衣物和食物——上，但最终，等物价回落，他们会重新开始消费，比如房地产，人们会重新开始购买房产。我知道的很多人就在持币观望，等待房地产价格跌至最低，但很不幸，我觉得现在还没跌到底。

　　点击返回专题：亲历华尔街